DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL OF THE INFLUENCE OF FOREIGN DEBT ON THE MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE

Abstract

The article developed a model of the influence of external debt on the macroeconomic development of Ukraine. The studied financial and economic indicators change over time. It is necessary to choose among those models that are designed for simulating time series. The purpose of modeling is to forecast the future values of the investigated financial and economic indicators. The task of studying the impact of public debt on macroeconomic development can only be solved with the help of models using several time series, since there are many macroeconomic indicators that can demonstrate general economic development. It was established that in the case of military operations, lost territories, destroyed cities, it is impossible to compare model data with current data. The resulting model clearly describes the dynamics of all indicators selected in the study. It was determined that the debt of the general public administration in relation to the GDP of Ukraine is slowly decreasing. It was determined that the specific weight of debt service expenses in the total expenses of the state budget tends to decrease, and the tendency of fluctuations is gradually suppressed. The consumer price index was the most volatile with significant changes. The real effective exchange rate index continued to rise, but after peaking, it trended downward. The index of political stability reached a plateau, which should justify expectations regarding the gradual improvement of the political situation in Ukraine. The obtained results can be used to formulate public debt management policy measures, forecast relevant macroeconomic indicators and use the results for general management of the economic development of Ukraine. The value of the obtained results must be measured by the possibility of using the model to forecast indicators for future periods.