SCENARIO MODELLING OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIAL COMMUNITIES UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

The article is devoted to developing a methodological approach to scenario modelling of the socio-economic development of territorial communities. The necessity of applying the scenario approach to the strategic management of communities operating under the influence of security, demographic, financial, investment, and infrastructural changes is substantiated. The study is conducted using the example of 13 territorial communities in the Odesa region, which is strategically important for maintaining Ukraine’s transport and logistics, export, and food potential. The proposed methodological approach involves developing an information base, calculating an integral indicator of socio-economic development, forecasting its values, constructing alternative scenarios, and substantiating managerial decisions. The integral assessment is performed using a set of social and economic indicators and the taxonomic method. Based on actual data for 2022–2025, a baseline forecast of the integral indicator for 2026–2028 is developed using a linear trend. The results indicate a projected increase in the indicator across all the communities under study, while differences in their development trajectories are expected to persist.

Based on the baseline forecast, pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic scenarios for the socio-economic development of territorial communities are developed. The scenario values of the integral indicator are calculated, and the communities with the highest potential results, as well as the territories that remain most vulnerable to deteriorating operating conditions, are identified. A matrix of managerial actions is developed across financial and budgetary, infrastructural, economic, socio-demographic, investment, and organisational dimensions. The practical significance of the results lies in their potential use by local self-government bodies to substantiate strategic decisions, respond promptly to environmental changes, and determine priorities for the recovery and development of territorial communities.