METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK FOR APPLYING EXPERT METHODS IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS ANALYSIS

Abstract

The article examines the theoretical and methodological foundations for applying expert methods within the system of scientific research on international economic processes under conditions of global turbulence and informational uncertainty. It substantiates that international economic relations, as a complex, multi-actor and asymmetric system, are characterized by high dynamism, dependence on political and geopolitical factors, and weak structuring, which limits the effectiveness of traditional quantitative analytical methods. The expediency of integrating an expert approach that combines formalized procedures with professional experience and analytical intuition of specialists is demonstrated.

The essence of individual and collective expert methods, their advantages and limitations are revealed, with particular attention paid to the risks of subjectivism and group pressure. An algorithm for organizing expert surveys is proposed, including problem formulation, formation of a competent expert group, development of research instruments, economic and statistical processing of results, and verification of their reliability. The necessity of selective expert recruitment and the application of a weighting approach to aggregate judgments, taking into account the level of expert competence, is substantiated.

The significance of Kendall’s coefficient of concordance for measuring the consistency of expert assessments and Pearson’s criterion for testing their statistical significance is determined. Particular attention is paid to the Analytic Hierarchy Process as a tool for transforming multicriteria problems into a system of mathematically grounded priorities with consistency control of pairwise comparison matrices. It is concluded that the comprehensive application of expert methods forms a reliable methodological filter, enhances the objectivity of results, and ensures the adaptability of analytical models to the dynamics of the international economic environment.