FORECASTING THE RESULTS OF MARKETING ACTIVITIES OF A BUSINESS ENTITY

Abstract

The article considers methodological approaches to forecasting the results of marketing activities of a business entity in modern conditions. The relevance of the study is due to the need for business entities to adapt to functioning in conditions of martial law, the rupture of traditional logistics chains and the rapid digitalization of the economy. The author analyzes the scientific achievements of domestic and foreign scientists on methods for modeling financial and economic indicators. The paper substantiates the role of marketing activities as an information foundation for building forecast models. Particular attention is paid to the use of correlation-regression analysis, which allows identifying the dependence of sales on key internal and external factors of influence. The author considers the main forecasting methods that allow assessing and predicting the result of marketing activities in the form of the volume of products sold. The dynamics of the volume of products sold are analyzed and the factors that influence its change are identified. The paper builds an econometric model of changes in the volume of products sold under the influence of material efficiency, average monthly output per employee and the level of capital efficiency. It is proposed to combine the results of correlation-regression analysis, trend extrapolation and the method of expert assessments to predict the results of marketing activities. Forecasting the volume of products sold was carried out on the basis of existing trends in the business entity and using the expert method of increasing the level of material efficiency, labor productivity and capital efficiency. Both options gave a positive increase in net income from product sales. Depending on the dynamics of the market environment, these models can be recommended for implementation in the practice of enterprise management.