MONITORING AND FORECASTING THREATS TO UKRAINE’S MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN THE CONTEXT OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

Abstract

The article examines the issues of monitoring and forecasting threats to Ukraine’s macroeconomic stability under conditions of transformation of foreign economic relations and deepening European integration processes. It is substantiated that Ukraine’s current macroeconomic environment is shaped by a combination of interrelated internal and external factors, among which the consequences of the full-scale war, structural transformations of the economy, disruption of logistics chains, migration processes, exchange rate fluctuations, dependence on external financing, changes in global market conditions, and transformations in the commodity and geographical structure of foreign trade are of particular importance. The purpose of the study is to systematize the key threats to Ukraine’s macroeconomic stability, identify the channels through which they emerge and spread through foreign economic activity, and substantiate approaches to improving their monitoring and forecasting in the context of European integration. The methodological framework of the study is based on systemic, structural-functional and comparative approaches, as well as methods of analysis, synthesis, generalization, economic risk assessment and forecasting. It is established that the development of foreign economic activity has a dual impact on macroeconomic stability. On the one hand, it contributes to expanding export opportunities, attracting investment, diversifying destination markets and integrating Ukraine into European production chains. On the other hand, it may intensify import dependence, foreign trade and exchange rate imbalances, debt-related risks and dependence on external market conditions. The study substantiates the need to shift from predominantly reactive responses to macroeconomic threats towards a preventive system of their early identification. It is proposed that monitoring should focus on a comprehensive assessment of foreign trade, balance of payments, foreign exchange market, public finances, external debt, investment activity and economic dynamics. The practical significance of the findings lies in their potential application to improving public policy aimed at ensuring macroeconomic resilience, minimizing external risks and increasing the effectiveness of Ukraine’s European integration transformation. The proposed approach creates a basis for strengthening the analytical and forecasting component of macroeconomic management and for developing timely preventive measures aimed at preserving economic stability under conditions of high uncertainty and external shocks.