EVOLUTIONARY MODELING OF OPERATIONAL BUSINESS PROCESSES OF OIL AND GAS PRODUCING COMPANIES FOR REVENUE FORECASTING

Abstract

The article considers models of the dynamics of operational business processes of oil and gas producing enterprises, which are the main ones in the formation of enterprise income, in particular hydrocarbon production. Existing mфathematical models of oil, gas and condensate production processes are analyzed, which allow assessing the level of oil production in the world, as well as in individual fields, in particular in Ukraine. Based on the analysis, a new formal model of the hydrocarbon production process is proposed in the form of a dynamic phenomenological mathematical model, which is built on the principles of a holistic approach and is the basis for forecasting enterprise income. The model allows determining the income of enterprises at different stages of development of oil and gas fields, which differ significantly in profitability. The application of the developed model both at the stage of positive dynamics of development and at the stage of late exploitation of the deposit provides an objective forecast of income, and as a result creates the possibility of forming an investment strategy for the development of the enterprise. An important advantage of the proposed model, which reflects the connections between the target product and resources, is that it allows you to effectively solve the problems of determining the parameters that affect the final result, using a single algorithm in real time, which allows you to prevent complications in ensuring the planned production of hydrocarbons and objectively approach the forecasting of the enterprise's income for any period. Examples of the application of the phenomenological model for oil and gas production processes in Ukraine are given.