Development of preventive tools for managing organizational and legal security of agrarian business entities

Abstract

The article provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of Ukraine's agricultural export and operational dynamics under geopolitical shocks and martial law. Investigating infrastructure support for foreign trade reveals the institutional mechanisms through which primary producers participate in the distribution of export income. Based on 2024/2025 marketing data, the study analyzes structural changes in grain and processed product exports and evaluates their direct impact on Ukraine's Gross Domestic Product. The study identifies a profound market asymmetry: primary enterprises bear the core production, climate, and military risks but receive only a minimal revenue share, while profits accrue to intermediaries and logistics operators. Pricing transformations across Incoterms matrices (EXW, CPT, FOB, CIF) demonstrate how hyper-inflated logistics costs absorb up to 60% of the final price, driving farm-gate returns below technological production costs. The impact of the logistic scale effect, financial leverage, and administrative barriers on the systematic exclusion of small and micro-enterprises from direct export channels is detailed. Furthermore, the research explores the transition from reactive defense to proactive management based on predictive risk management and regulatory compliance within the 2024–2026 timeframe. A hierarchical system of security principles (preventiveness, adaptability, economic efficiency) is systematized utilizing Thomas Saaty’s Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). A mathematical apparatus for assessing the organizational and legal security level (SOL) based on domain weight coefficients is proposed. The study determines the impact of digitalization and international regulatory frameworks on overcoming "organizational silos" through Integrated Management Systems and GRC platforms. Special attention is paid to value-added tax administration and transfer pricing controls under Article 39 of the Tax Code of Ukraine. Finally, the study classifies contemporary agricultural raiding and establishes a four-stage action algorithm for the operational protection of agribusiness assets, property rights, and land banks.