EXPORT POTENTIAL OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS OF UKRAINE: CURRENT STATUS, RISKS AND DIRECTIONS OF DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

The article carries out a comprehensive analysis of the export potential of agricultural products of Ukraine in the context of structural transformations of the agricultural sector, war and global changes in the world trade system. It is shown that agricultural products remain one of the leading sources of foreign exchange revenues to the state budget, and their export orientation determines the overall dynamics of the development of the agrarian economy. At the same time, it is established that the existing raw material export model significantly limits the possibilities of diversifying markets, creating added value within the country, ensuring the sustainability of trade activities and achieving sustainable development goals. The article systematizes the main challenges facing the export sector of Ukraine in 2022–2024: destruction of logistics infrastructure, blocking of ports, increasing transportation costs, loss of traditional sales markets, decreasing investment attractiveness, instability of state export policy, high risks of contracting and lending. The study covers the analysis of the export structure, main commodity groups, regional direction of supplies and features of certification requirements in partner countries.

The need for strategic reorientation of agricultural exports towards products with high added value, organic and niche products, expansion of presence in the markets of Asia, Africa and the Middle East is substantiated. Promising areas of state support are identified: introduction of export insurance mechanisms, logistics subsidies, promotion of the country of origin brand, harmonization of standards with EU requirements, development of electronic platforms for agricultural exporters. The article emphasizes that post-war reconstruction opens a window of opportunity for restructuring agricultural exports on the basis of technological modernization, environmental responsibility, institutional strengthening and integration into global value chains. The results of the study can be used in the development of a national export strategy, regional export support programs and planning of foreign economic policy of the agricultural sector.