THE TRANSFORMATION OF UKRAINE'S COMMODITY MARKET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL PRICE SHOCKS AND THE IMPORTANCE OF EXCHANGE-TRADED DERIVATIVES IN STRENGTHENING FOOD SECURITY

Abstract

The study focuses on analyzing changes in global prices for grains, oilseeds, and energy resources, as well as their transfer to domestic price indicators in the agricultural sector. The purpose of the article is to quantitatively assess the impact of global price shocks in 2020–2025 on the functioning of the commodity market in Ukraine and to determine the potential of exchange derivatives in reducing price risks and maintaining food stability. The methodology is based on a comparative analysis of statistical data for six years, including world price indices, food inflation indicators, exchange turnover volumes, and the number of forward contracts concluded. Indicative calculations of price variations, growth rates, and structural shifts in the production and export of agricultural products were used. Particular attention was paid to assessing the scale of the derivative segment of the organized commodity market and its share in the risk hedging system. The results showed that during peak periods of volatility, food inflation exceeded 20%, while physical production volumes remained relatively stable. This indicates the dominance of the price risk factor. At the same time, exchange turnover of derivatives more than doubled during the period under review, but their use by agricultural producers remains limited. A direct link was found between the development of organized trade and a reduction in the amplitude of seasonal price fluctuations. The practical significance of the study lies in the formulation of recommendations for intensifying the use of futures and options contracts to fix price parameters at the production planning stage. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the comprehensive combination of analysis of global price trends with an assessment of the internal exchange infrastructure as a tool for ensuring food security in conditions of external instability.