SCENARIO MODELING OF SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE UNDER MARTIAL LAW

Abstract

The article considers scenario modeling of the socio-ecological and economic development of Ukraine under martial law. Modern military operations create complex challenges for the economy, social sphere and environment, which requires a comprehensive approach to forecasting and strategic planning. Traditional methods of analysis and forecasting in conditions of high uncertainty are not effective enough, therefore the use of scenario modeling, simulation methods and game theory allows for more accurate assessments of the dynamics of the system and the consequences of various management decisions. An integrated model of the socio-ecological and economic system of Ukraine is proposed for the study, which includes three groups of indicators: social (population, migration flows, level of social tension), economic (gross domestic product, investments, budget deficit) and environmental (environmental condition, land degradation, pollution). The dynamics of the system is modeled using differential equations, and uncertainty is taken into account through random components in simulation runs using the Monte Carlo method. The study was conducted for three scenarios of the country’s development: optimistic (short-term conflict and active international support), basic (protracted conflict with moderate support) and pessimistic (long-term conflict with low levels of assistance and significant losses of infrastructure). To assess the effectiveness of strategies and interaction of key players, a game theory approach was used to determine the Nash equilibrium between the state, the population and international partners. The modeling results showed that the optimal state strategies include maximizing investments in critical infrastructure, expanding social programs and implementing environmental initiatives; the population adapts migration behavior and participates in volunteer and restoration projects; international partners provide priority for humanitarian assistance and financing for environmental restoration. The integrated application of strategies of all players allows stabilizing the socio-ecological-economic system and ensuring sustainable development of the country in the medium and long term.