ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM OF UKRAINE

Abstract

The article analyzes the transformation of Ukraine’s energy sector over the period 2000–2024 under the combined influence of structural economic changes, global energy transition trends, and military challenges. Particular attention is paid to the dynamics of the energy commodities trade balance, changes in the structure and volumes of electricity generation, generation intensity relative to economic output, and the emission intensity of the energy sector. The study shows that Ukraine’s energy system has undergone a gradual shift from a carbon-intensive model dominated by coal-based generation toward a more diversified structure with a growing role of nuclear power and renewable energy sources. At the same time, the loss of generating capacities, disruption of energy infrastructure, and increased import dependence caused by military aggression have intensified structural imbalances and reduced system flexibility. The analysis of generation intensity indicates a decline in electricity production per unit of GDP, reflecting both economic contraction and changes in energy efficiency. Emission intensity trends demonstrate a long-term decrease driven by the reduction of coal generation and expansion of low-carbon sources, although short-term fluctuations remain sensitive to crisis conditions. Based on the results, the article emphasizes the need for realistic post-war recovery priorities focused on restoring flexible generation, expanding renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and strengthening energy system resilience. The findings contribute to a comprehensive understanding of Ukraine’s energy transformation and provide a basis for policy-oriented recommendations aligned with decarbonization and energy security goals.