FORECAST OF THE GRAIN MARKET IN UKRAINE AND THE WORLD

Abstract

The article examines the current state and prospects for the development of the grain market in Ukraine and the world, taking into account the influence of global and local factors. Based on statistical data and industry forecasts, the dynamics of production, consumption, trade and stocks of grain crops for the period 2021–2026 marketing years are considered. Particular attention is paid to the consequences of the full-scale war in Ukraine, climatic and logistical risks that affect the export potential and the market situation. Key areas for adapting grain policy to new geoeconomic conditions are identified.

The main trends in demand and supply are identified, the impact of the war on Ukraine's export activities is analyzed, and a market forecast is made based on statistical data, scenario analysis models and expert assessments.

In general, the study showed that the world market demonstrates a trend towards increasing grain production, while the level of consumption is also growing, which determines the need for stable supply channels and updated logistics. On the other hand, the war in Ukraine significantly affected the volume of sown areas, yields and physical export opportunities, which caused short-term volatility and long-term restructuring of trade in the Black Sea region.

Despite the difficult situation, Ukraine retains the potential to return to the position of one of the leaders of the world market, provided that the following strategic steps are implemented: diversification of logistics routes (via the Danube, railways, EU ports), support for producers, investments in sustainable agricultural technologies and expansion of international trade and diplomatic cooperation.